Every fall a regional winter outlook lands in the inbox of contractors and homeowners, and the same question follows it: does a colder than normal season change what the house needs? ACHR News has pulled together the view from AccuWeather, NOAA, and The Old Farmer's Almanac in its 2026-2027 Winter Weather Forecast, which breaks down "what contractors can expect region by region this winter." A region is not a house, though. A forecast gives you a likely temperature pattern. It does not tell you how many hours your system will run, how hard your ducts will work, or whether your filter will hold up under longer cycles.
Turn Degrees Into Run Hours
Heating load tracks the gap between your indoor setpoint and the outdoor air, accumulated over time. The usual tool for that is heating degree days, a count built from daily average temperatures below a base, commonly 65 degrees Fahrenheit. A winter with 300 more heating degree days than last year means the system will spend far more hours running at the same setpoint, and that is what shows up on the bill.
You can build a rough estimate from records you already have. Pull your gas therms or electric kWh for the heating months from the last two or three winters, then find local degree day totals for the same billing periods. The ratio of usage to degree days gives you a working number for your house. Multiply that ratio by the degree day total you expect, using the regional outlook as your guide, and you have a ballpark for the season. Treat it as a planning number, not a quote.
Heat pumps need a separate caveat. Their output falls as outdoor temperature drops, so the coldest stretch of the forecast matters more than the seasonal average. A gas furnace puts out roughly the same heat in a deep cold snap, so the coldest week mostly affects how long it runs, not how much it can deliver.
Check the Parts a Long Cold Stretch Exposes
Longer runtime exposes weak points that a mild week hides. Start at the filter. A clogged filter raises resistance on the air side, and the system then runs longer to deliver the same heat. Check the furnace data plate for the temperature rise range. After the system has run long enough to settle, often 15 minutes or more, measure supply and return air temperatures at the same point in the cycle. The difference should fall inside the printed range. If it runs hot, suspect airflow or restriction before you suspect the heat source itself.
Next, the attic. Measure insulation depth with a tape, note where the ducts cross the joists, and look for crushed or disconnected flex runs. Walk only on joists or solid boards, keep a light on, and do not bury recessed fixtures under insulation. Rooms that stay cold on a moderately cold day usually point to duct design or leakage, not to a bad thermostat, so note which rooms lag before you blame the control.
Set the Reserve and the Setpoint
If you heat with propane or oil, check the tank level now rather than in the first hard week, and confirm your delivery route and how far out the supplier schedules. For a heat pump, keep setbacks modest. A large temperature drop followed by a fast recovery can pull the system into supplementary heat, which costs more per hour. Choose a setpoint you can hold for days, not just one night, and keep the thermostat away from drafts and direct sun through a window so it reads the room, not the weather.
Name Who Checks the House
In homes where an older person or someone who needs steady warmth lives, a cold house is more than a comfort problem. Name who checks the thermostat, the furnace, and the tank on cold days, and write down the number to call for each. Some families also arrange non-medical in-home support for older adults in St. Louis to cover those check-ins when no one else in the family can. Keep that roster on the refrigerator, not only in a phone that may die in the cold.
The forecast gives you the shape of the season. The house decides how that shape lands. Check the outlook again as the cold weeks approach, rerun the degree-day estimate if the picture changes, and walk the house with a meter and a tape before the first hard night.